个人所得税扣除政策绩效的评价与测度

本文基于技术经济学项目评价指标的广泛适用性,对个人所得税扣除政策的成本与收益进行了评价与测度.这种探索有助于深化个人所得税制的研究.     

Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand

The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed.     

INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN GREAT BRITAIN AND ITS EFFECT ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING PLANTS, 1990–1998

Industrial policy in any economy has a number of varying and occasionally conflicting objectives, but the overarching intention of the various grants, subsidies and support schemes, arguably, must be to improve the economic performance of the plants they assist directly. However, in the absence of counterfactual evidence, whether or not assistance does improve performance is hard to establish. In this paper, we consider the impact of two UK government industrial support schemes (Regional Selective Assistance and the Small Firm Merit Awards for Research and Technology) on UK manufacturing plant level total factor productivity in an attempt to answer the question, ‘did assistance make a difference?’     

国有企业“债转股”政策:功能缺陷与制度依赖——项基于国有企业“债转股”政策跟踪调查的研究

伴随着我国经济体制改革向纵深发展,国有企业负债比率过高的问题更加突出显示出来。为了解决这个问题,我国实施了“债转股”政策。本文讨论四个命题:(1)国有企业是负债比率过高还是收益率过低;(2)“债转股”政策究竟是使国有企业“财务解困”还是“体制解困”;(3)“债转股”政策究竟是转移金融风险还是化解金融风险;(4)资产管理公司为国有企业和国有商业银行解困,将来谁为资产管理公司解困。本文认为“债转股”政策设计存在功能缺陷与制度依赖。国有企业“债转股”政策的成功依赖于国有企业(商业银行)现代企业制度的建立与完善。     

Public support to innovation and imitation in a non-scale growth model

This paper studies technology policy within a version of Jones's [1995. R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 103, 759–784] non-scale R&D-based growth framework that incorporates imitation of foreign techniques. In the model, imitation is the most important source of productivity growth at the beginning of the convergence process, whereas innovation dominates later on. In addition, the transitional dynamics of the model can account for well-known empirical regularities regarding the relationship between the level of economic development and public support to technology innovation and imitation. The paper shows as well that, even though policy in Jones-type non-scale models has no long-run growth effects, level effects can be substantial.     

货币政策地区效应——基于地区总供给曲线的理论与实证分析

本文着重检验了我国区域经济中的基于产出缺口的地区短期总供给曲线的存在性,进而分析地区短期总供给曲线对货币政策地区效应的影响。文章首先对地区短期总供给曲线存在的可能性进行了理论解释,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算了我国各地区的产出缺口,然后运用ARMA模型说明预期通货膨胀率形成机制,最后以通货膨胀率与其预期之差、外部需求冲击等作为解释变量对产出缺口进行回归,结果发现,我国东部地区的短期总供给曲线较中西部地区的短期总供给曲线更平坦,因而东部地区货币政策效应要强于中西部地区。     

中国通货膨胀率持久性变化研究及政策含义分析

通胀率持久性在通胀率动态研究中备受学界的关注,并且直接影响现代货币政策传导机制的终解方程式。本文对我国通胀率持久性的统计特性做了严谨的计量检验和分析,应用“格点拔靴(自举)”中值无偏估计和Exp-Wald未知断点检验来捕捉我国物价波动持久性的特征。统计结果显示,通胀率持久性在高通胀时期走高,而在物价波动减小的20世纪90年代中后期显著减弱。我们讨论了这一发现对相关货币政策分析机制的含义。     

绍兴、吴江农村城市化的情况调研

通过对江苏吴江市和浙江绍兴县两地部分建制镇和部分原农村居民点的实地调研 ,作者认为 ,目前两地农村工业化、城市化处于发展的上升期 :中心镇经济和城市化发展相当快 ;中心镇以下的部分行政村异地或就地实现城市化。在城市化进程中 ,以下问题有待探讨解决 :迁村并点、撤乡并镇的速度与规模 ;城镇建设用地指标及相关政策 ;社区建设改造过程中 ,农民征地拆迁补偿标准和社会保障等。     

企业盈利水平、会计政策与权益账面价值的相关性分析

本文研究了企业所有者权益账面价值与其公允价值间的定量关系,通过对相应的计量模型进行推导并分析表明,企业的盈利水平和会计政策是影响权益会计计量价值相关性的决定性因素。在此基础上,本文对于以账面价值为基础评估权益的市场价值,以及会计信息价值相关性的经验性研究,提出了相关建议。     

货币政策和银行风险承担：一种非线性关系

宽松的货币政策会通过估值、收入和现金流机制,追逐收益机制以及中央银行沟通和反应机制等渠道增加银行风险承担,通过风险转移机制降低银行风险承担,从而导致货币政策与银行风险承担之间可能存在复杂的非线性关系。本文使用面板阈值模型,基于我国银行业数据研究了货币政策对银行风险承担的影响,发现我国货币政策对银行风险承担的影响存在门限效应,即货币政策对银行风险承担的影响取决于货币政策基准利率偏离泰勒规则利率的程度。当这种偏离小于门限值时,宽松货币政策会增加银行风险承担;当这种偏离大于门限值时,宽松货币政策会降低银行风险承担。本文研究对更好地理解我国货币政策对银行风险承担及金融稳定的影响有一定参考意义。